Uppity Wisconsin - Craig Gilbert

Wisconsin Political Data and Analyses Lead Country

mal contends — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 13:38:51 +0000

via mal contends - Wisconsin is ground zero, along with some seven other states, in the 2008 presidential election.

Small-time (by marketing standards) Milwaukee and Green Bay are two of nation's top four markets for presidential ads, and the state ranks sixth among the key battlegrounds in TV spending (Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

How do we know that? We know through the work of the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which compiles statistical data on political spending in broadcast media around the country, including this latest report (for which I cannot find a link): Nearly 100 percent of the McCain campaign's recent advertisements are negative.

And the Wisconsin Advertising Project is not alone in its contributions to political knowledge.

Wisconsin is ground zero to among the nation's most insightful political data gathering and analyses, often cited by the national media and used as analytical resources in describing voting demographics, voting preferences, and various trends.

Other examples include Election08Data and Political Arithmetic.

But these are not secretive campaign strategists planning their appeals to the voters, these are public outfits and publicly minded academics and political junkies.

The value of Wisconsin's long commitment to public education and the Wisconsin Idea is clear.

It is no wonder that the grand-daddy of all polls--the Nielsen ratings--also has long ties to the University of Wisconsin System

Wisconsin Says Wrong Direction

mal contends — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:50:04 +0000

Wisconsin is saying we're heading in the wrong direction, and they're not talking about Brett Favre ['we'll always have Green Bay'].

A record-low seventeen percent of Wisconsin voters think the country is going in the right direction, according a new poll conducted by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, a right-leaning public policy think tank.

And yet, everyone will note, Obama leads McCain by only 44% to 38% among likely voters in the same poll.

So what? For one thing, the polls are generating much angst among those terrified that McSame will win in November.

But as a writer at MyDD scoffs, 'We're Doooooooooooooooomed!'

The point is well-taken

Does anyone know when in the last 48 years (arguably the modern era) has a non-incumbent presidential nominee of any party ever been ahead by, say, eight points in early August polling?

I can't recall any time, maybe going back to Ike in '52? If anyone has any data, please post it.

This can't close-the-deal crap pushed by Will, Novak (hope his health improves), and others is bullshit.

The corporate talking heads are pushing the 'horserace' for their corporate masters to sell air time; and the race, such as it is, sees McCain way out of his league. But the corporate broadcast media will not say that.

As Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato write:

... virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry.

Obama's Reaching White Wisc Men, Hillary Attacks

mal contends — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 12:35:14 +0000

Much of what one hears in campaigns is anecdotal.

After hearing something over and over, a pattern emerges. Such is Obama’s appeal to the white male demographic, especially here in Wisconsin.

A source said that two male “red necks” listened to Obama at a Janesville GM plant on Wednesday, and walked away vowing to vote for him. This cross-over appeal looks to deliver a victory to Obama here on Tuesday.

Should that victory be something near 10 points, the talk of a Clinton campaign near death will amplify across the nation.

"If Obama is able to win by double digits, a significant win, it could be a very serious blow to her chances in other states," Feingold said in an interview. "If she keeps it close or by some chance wins, it could be a platform for another revival and be a real boost." (Craig Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Hillary Attacks

Now Hillary, watching a speeding Obama blow by her in Wisconsin, is on the attack, running attack ad after attack ad.

The latest ad claims Obama said he "might raise the retirement age and cut benefits" of Social Security. It's a lie.

Hillary's negative tone feeds the impression of a self-serving, ethically lapsed professional politician.

Said Gov. Jim Doyle: "The only campaign she has going on in Wisconsin is negative TV ads." (Craig Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Voters going to the polls Tuesday may have the pleasure of sending Hillary and her negativity back to where it came from.