Uppity Wisconsin

Rasmussen Reports, which has been peddling some very suspect numbers about Wisconsin political races in recent months, has a new Wisconsin poll (paid for by who knows whom.)

What's been remarkable about Rasmussen polls is the high name recognition of two Republican Senate candidates that no one has heard of in real life -- not to mention the fact that it shows Tommy Thompson, who's not even running, beating Russ Feingold.

The pollsters tried to defend themselves, but their latest set of numbers takes a new tack.

The two Repubs, David Westlake and Terrence Wall, both are less well known now than they were a month ago, they say. But their favorable-unfavorable numbers are still greatly inflated.

Now, Rassmussen says those numbers don't count:

Feingold is viewed very favorably by 34% of Wisconsin voters and very unfavorably by 31%. Twenty-one percent (21%) view Thompson very favorably, while 17% view him very unfavorably.

Fewer than 10% of Wisconsin voters share strong opinions of either of the two announced GOP candidates. Thirty-three percent (33%) have no opinion of Wall, while 40% feel the same about Westlake.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Weasel words.

By the way, Rasmussen says the Thompson-Feingold matchup is a dead heat, 47-45. It seems like just last week that Wisconsin's Phony Research Institute released a poll showing Tommy up by 12.

WisPolitics: Conservatives rally for freedom, revolution and opposition to Dem policies.

It's not exactly a non-partisan revolution.

527 contributions: Wisconsin donors gave secretive 527 groups more than $1.5 million in 2009, a record for a non-election year. The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign also finds that Dem 527s pulled in about two-thirds of the overall money given to the organizations, continuing a trend that began in 2006.-- WisPolitics report.

Quick early observations on the latest WPRI poll, which -- surprise! -- finds good news for Republicans. Tommy Thompson, who's not running, is winning the Senate race, and Scott Walker, who is running, is ahead for governor, they say.

Since the University of Wisconsin has severed ties with this project, maybe Ken Golstein could team up with the Rasmussen folks and save us having to read this drivel quite so often.

A couple of points to ponder:

-- We've eliminated the question of whether the Journal Sentinel will continue to report this as if it means something. The paper, whose managing editor leans the same was WPRI does, has swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. (WisPolitics at least acknowledged the questions that have been raised about the group's polling.)

-- According to WPRI, it only took a few weeks of mediocre TV spots for Neumann to get ahead of Walker everywhere but Walker's home media market of Milwaukee. No wonder Walker went on the air yesterday -- everywhere but Milwaukee.

-- Bad news for Terrence Wall.

"Instead of taking on the special interests, he's been taking them on as clients." -- Russ Feingold on Tommy Thompson.

Rasmussen Reports, under fire for some questionable poll numbers that keep showing Republicans doing too well, insists its methodology is fine when it comes to measuring favorability and unfavoraability of candidates -- which also are a measurement of name recognition. Here's something we overlooked in their Feb. 18 poll:

The poll was done on Feb. 17. We have no idea who paid for it, which makes it even a little more suspect. But, be that as it may, here's the thing:

On Feb. 17, Rassmussen asked favorable/unfavorable ratings on the two Republican candidates for US Senate (the two who are actually running, not the guy supposedly thinking about it. They found that Terrence Wall's favorable-unfavorable numbers were 34-35, with 31% having no opinion.

The numbers for David Westlake, the other GOP candidate, were almost identical, and within the margin of error, at 33-31, with 36% having no opinion.

But Wall had been on statewide television for nine days before the survey was taken. And Westlake, who's an unknown who has not run any television, is equal with him?  Not likely.  TV doesn't necessarily work miracles overnight, but there should be a measurable difference, especially when one candidate's the only one on the air.

So: Hold page one, we've got a scoop buried in the numbers. Political television advertising doesn't work.

Wait'll that gets around. Candidates will be back to making speeches on the street corner, like Fighting Bob LaFollette (pictured) used to do. And campaigns will be really cheap.

Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports, the GOP polling firm that keeps saying Republicans are ahead in Wisconsin when no other poll agrees, has "explained" why his polls have numbers no one else's do.

One finding that got a lot of attention was a recent poll showing Senate candidate Dave Westlake with 64% name recognition statewide, when in reality no one's ever heard of him.

Rasmussen says it's all a matter of when they ask the question in the survey. Others ask that question at the beginning, to get a real reading on whether respondents know the candidates before giving them any information about them.

Rasmussen asks the question later, after telling people what Westlake is running for and which party he's in. So any response is clearly skewed.

Rasmussen sees no problem with that. This is the best part of his defense:

... most people may not know the names of challengers even on election day.

But his poll says 64% of them have an opinion now about a guy they never heard of?

If I were Tommy (I can't even imagine that!), I might want to pay more attention to the comments than the story about his musings.

The news media and some Republican insiders may think Tommy for Senate is a great idea, but the great unwashed are unimpressed. Check it out. It's certainly not a poll, but it's a focus group of sorts. People sound like they've had enough.

We commented recently on the phenomenal name identification David Westlake has achieved.

"Who's that?" you may ask. And with good reason.

Westlake is a US Senate candidate, running against Russ Feingold. Rasmussen Reports, a GOP polling firm that keeps releasing polls with rosy numbers for Wisconsin Republicans --but doesn't say who's paying for them -- puts Westlake's name ID at 64%. We have been more than skeptical.

Now, a "more reliable" source makes the point. Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a respected non-partisan DC newsletter, writes for Congressional Quarterly on Why you shouldn't believe everything you read, and the Rasmussen poll is the prime example.

Westlake is no doubt quite disappointed to find he is not a household word.  But if he knocked on even one door, he'd find that out soon enough.

When I read this quote from Crazy Dave Zien (pictured), the cycle-riding, flag-waving, war-loving former Republican state senator from Eau Claire, I thought he wanted to send Tommy Thompson to Afghanistan:

Wisconsin deserves a shot of adrenaline, a bright shining star to return to active duty.

Turns out he had something else in mind.

 In other news:

-- That rascally Rasmussen poll is back, saying Tommy beats Russ Feingold and Scott Walker beats Tom Barrett. Reality check: Who is David Westlake? Give up? He's a Republican running against Feingold, but even a number of politiucal activists I've asked could not identify him. Amazing, then, that he has 64% statewide name recognition according to the Rassmussen "poll." Methinks their numbers aren't too reliable.

-- Just when a few people said they were tired of Tom Barrett saying "jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs" is his campaign theme, Scott Walker one-upped him. Walker's theme is "jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs ... 250,000 times, the number he says he'll create.

WisPolitics: Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Report writes about US Senate candidate Terrence Wall:

"When I interviewed Wall recently, he refused to give his date of birth. He only offered the year of his birth (and his age), apparently because he is concerned about identity theft. Wall, in other words, has a long way to go before he is a serious threat to Feingold, even in a bad year for Democrats."

Facebook says it's June 4, 1964.

But it may be time to start a Wall birther movement and demand to see some proof.

A "misleading" political ad? Whoa, Eddie! What next?

Terrence Wall, who's apparently saved enough money by not paying taxes to be able to fund his own US Senate campaign, is the first political candidate on the air this year, nine months before the general election.

No soft biographical stuff here. A head-on blast at Sen. Russ Feingold for voting in favor of "government takeover of health care."

The Associated Press says it's misleading, prompting Wall to respond with some other factually challenged information.

Lordy, Lordy! It's gonna be a long year.

"I am not going to run for president. I'm just not going to do it. My head's not that big, and my kids are too small.

- U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to Mike Gousha.  .